Print ArticleBy Alan Hurwitz
It´s 2008. A first-term senator with the unlikely name of Barack Obama clinches the Democratic presidential nomination, beating the heir apparent in a grueling primary contest. His promise of change and a new politics inspires millions. Democrats attract more voters than ever before, including young and minority first-timers.
The incumbent president maintains ratings in the low 30s as Democrats dominate the discredited Republicans. An unpopular war, launched under suspicious circumstances, drags on. The economy is worse than at any time since the last President Bush. Things are looking up for the party of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Obama.
Several months later the two candidates are polling close to the statistical margin of error. John McCain´s war, economy and energy policy, previously out of step with voters, have magically turned around.
McCain makes credible (if fallacious) arguments that the "surge" is working, and that we are actually "winning" the war, that we can leave with something we can call victory – if we can only hang in and not elect a Democrat who will declare defeat first.
Iraqi government pronouncements demanding a withdrawal timetable at first seemed an endorsement of Obama´s position, but may turn into a gift to McCain, when the still-President allows himself to be pushed into the timetable before the election, and voters see an opportunity to have both: Their experienced soldier in charge and ending the war they detest, assuming he can remember or keep good notes handy, about which countries are which.
McCain has arguably turned energy policy to his favor. After a career voting the Republican line, including many votes against alternative energy programs he now pretends to have invented, he has somehow become the advocate of all-of-the-above, while painting Obama as the "just say no" candidate to domestic energy development. Wind power and electric cars cannot replace oil. Even T. Boone Pickens knows that.
The Democrats need to do better ensuring the many McCain contradictions find their way onto the evening news and the Internet, Obama needs to advocate credible plans for replacing foreign oil. I favor a credible shift (as distinguished from "flip-flop") toward nuclear power, clearly the strategy of the future – ask any Frenchman. He could embrace T. Boone Pickens´s plan of wind and natural gas. Rebates won´t cut it as a strategy. It is too similar to McCain´s tax holiday, which Obama correctly ridiculed months ago.
McCain´s contradictions go back many years: His failure to support MLK´s birthday holiday, the Keating scandal, his anti-choice obsession, obvious political flip-flops on immigration policy and tax cuts, economics suggesting a mushy version of Adam Smith and Republican mantras for dangers that demand strong government action.
The Al Gore of 2000 was an unlikable loser in the Budweiser challenge, who claimed to have invented the Internet, while George W. Bush was still the pre-9/11 compassionate conservative. In 2004, John Kerry was the candidate who "voted for the Iraq War before he voted against it." Need I say more? The Democrats had victory within their grasp, but found ways to lose. Obama is smart, personable, strategic, not afraid to fight back and a vote-getter who beat the Democrats´ anointed nominee. We can´t repeat now.
What can Obama and supporters do to avoid this potential calamity for themselves and our country? I thought you´d never ask.
Make McCain´s weaknesses a clearer part of your stump speech. Pick a few with sticking power and hammer away – his ties to Bush, Dick Cheney and the neo-cons – Bush Light. Challenge him to define his positions clearly on areas that are getting a pass: Immigration reform, tax cuts et al, so he has to choose between his right-wing pandering and centrist pretensions. Also, go after his supposed strengths – Roveanism 101: "Obama is a celebrity, not a leader." Maybe an ad with a little maverick calf going back to his herd, after realizing it can be scary out there.
Embrace nuclear power as a long-term option, pending further investigation, especially of the European experience. There will be some resistance to our learning something from the French that isn´t cooking-related. If you can change your position on off-shore drilling, you can express some flexibility on this.
Annunciate a concrete plan for leaving Morass-apotamia, ideally as part of a compelling global security strategy. Advocating getting out, or willingness to speak with adversaries, isn´t the same as a plan to do it. A well-planned Middle East conference, including Iran, on Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be a part.
Perhaps most important, get Bob Reich or someone from your impressive brain trust to put together a creative and credible plan for fixing our economy – not a few exciting ideas, but a real plan, that does full justice to the expectation of new solutions. If it looks like 2008 version of the New Deal, people might start believing the criticism about being mainly good speeches.
Maybe it will help to pretend you´re running against Hillary again.
2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.
It´s 2008. A first-term senator with the unlikely name of Barack Obama clinches the Democratic presidential nomination, beating the heir apparent in a grueling primary contest. His promise of change and a new politics inspires millions. Democrats attract more voters than ever before, including young and minority first-timers.
The incumbent president maintains ratings in the low 30s as Democrats dominate the discredited Republicans. An unpopular war, launched under suspicious circumstances, drags on. The economy is worse than at any time since the last President Bush. Things are looking up for the party of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Obama.
Several months later the two candidates are polling close to the statistical margin of error. John McCain´s war, economy and energy policy, previously out of step with voters, have magically turned around.
McCain makes credible (if fallacious) arguments that the "surge" is working, and that we are actually "winning" the war, that we can leave with something we can call victory – if we can only hang in and not elect a Democrat who will declare defeat first.
Iraqi government pronouncements demanding a withdrawal timetable at first seemed an endorsement of Obama´s position, but may turn into a gift to McCain, when the still-President allows himself to be pushed into the timetable before the election, and voters see an opportunity to have both: Their experienced soldier in charge and ending the war they detest, assuming he can remember or keep good notes handy, about which countries are which.
McCain has arguably turned energy policy to his favor. After a career voting the Republican line, including many votes against alternative energy programs he now pretends to have invented, he has somehow become the advocate of all-of-the-above, while painting Obama as the "just say no" candidate to domestic energy development. Wind power and electric cars cannot replace oil. Even T. Boone Pickens knows that.
The Democrats need to do better ensuring the many McCain contradictions find their way onto the evening news and the Internet, Obama needs to advocate credible plans for replacing foreign oil. I favor a credible shift (as distinguished from "flip-flop") toward nuclear power, clearly the strategy of the future – ask any Frenchman. He could embrace T. Boone Pickens´s plan of wind and natural gas. Rebates won´t cut it as a strategy. It is too similar to McCain´s tax holiday, which Obama correctly ridiculed months ago.
McCain´s contradictions go back many years: His failure to support MLK´s birthday holiday, the Keating scandal, his anti-choice obsession, obvious political flip-flops on immigration policy and tax cuts, economics suggesting a mushy version of Adam Smith and Republican mantras for dangers that demand strong government action.
The Al Gore of 2000 was an unlikable loser in the Budweiser challenge, who claimed to have invented the Internet, while George W. Bush was still the pre-9/11 compassionate conservative. In 2004, John Kerry was the candidate who "voted for the Iraq War before he voted against it." Need I say more? The Democrats had victory within their grasp, but found ways to lose. Obama is smart, personable, strategic, not afraid to fight back and a vote-getter who beat the Democrats´ anointed nominee. We can´t repeat now.
What can Obama and supporters do to avoid this potential calamity for themselves and our country? I thought you´d never ask.
Make McCain´s weaknesses a clearer part of your stump speech. Pick a few with sticking power and hammer away – his ties to Bush, Dick Cheney and the neo-cons – Bush Light. Challenge him to define his positions clearly on areas that are getting a pass: Immigration reform, tax cuts et al, so he has to choose between his right-wing pandering and centrist pretensions. Also, go after his supposed strengths – Roveanism 101: "Obama is a celebrity, not a leader." Maybe an ad with a little maverick calf going back to his herd, after realizing it can be scary out there.
Embrace nuclear power as a long-term option, pending further investigation, especially of the European experience. There will be some resistance to our learning something from the French that isn´t cooking-related. If you can change your position on off-shore drilling, you can express some flexibility on this.
Annunciate a concrete plan for leaving Morass-apotamia, ideally as part of a compelling global security strategy. Advocating getting out, or willingness to speak with adversaries, isn´t the same as a plan to do it. A well-planned Middle East conference, including Iran, on Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict might be a part.
Perhaps most important, get Bob Reich or someone from your impressive brain trust to put together a creative and credible plan for fixing our economy – not a few exciting ideas, but a real plan, that does full justice to the expectation of new solutions. If it looks like 2008 version of the New Deal, people might start believing the criticism about being mainly good speeches.
Maybe it will help to pretend you´re running against Hillary again.
2008 North Star Writers Group. May not be republished without permission.
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