Print ArticleThe Russians did not only fight in Georgia but they drew a sharp red line for their national security. Simply they said that violation of the vital space of Russia means war. The United States understood the massage from the moment Russia started its military operations there and the Pentagon spokesperson declared that the American military personnel in Georgia have nothing to do with this war.
However, this was not the only message Russia has sent. The more important message was that the presence of American military personnel in a country does not mean that this country would be immune if threatened Russian interests. At first, Bush asked the Russians to pull their troops while the Georgian army was advancing in South Ossetia. Then he called for a ceasefire after the Russian army engaged in a battle that its results could be predicted. The Russians gave him a deaf ear and they entered Tskhinvali by force and air-raided a military base near Tibilisi. At last, the Americans said that Georgia was partly responsible about the crisis.
The pro-Western Georgian government and President Mikheil Saakashvili took the uncalculated decision to attack the pro-Russia South Ossetia and the Russian peacekeeping force there. The Russians proclaimed that Washington instigated him to do. Then they accused Ukraine of doing that. If it was, Washington then the Americans sacrificed Georgia to test the Russian seriousness about defending its interests before deploying the anti-missile missiles in Czech and Poland and before giving the green line for Ukraine and Georgia to apply for NATO membership. If it was Ukraine then it wanted to revenge for its disturbed relationship with Russia about gas supply, application to NATO, navy bases on the Black Sea and the Russian support for the big opposition that lost the last election with slight marginal results. Anyhow, it seems that uncalculated decisions are not exclusive to the Middle East.
Now the Americans and the Ukrainians know. The consequences were clear. Poland asked the European Council to hold an emergency meeting. In other words, Poland asks its partner a serious question, what if Russia decided to return to East Europe. Putin announced that it would be difficult for Georgia to keep sovereignty over South Ossetia. Bush called for the integrity of Georgia. The Naval siege of Georgian coast means a lot. If Russia will stay in Abkhazia or if it will occupy the Georgian coast, it will not need the Ukrainian ports anymore.
The pro-Russia Abkhazia started military operations against Georgia. It was clear that Russia well armed the two enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When Georgia accused Russia of using the air force against its bases, the Abkhazian separatists declared that their planes did that. To my knowledge, this is the first time a separatist group could have an air force.
Azerbaijan announced that it would stop its oil export through the Georgian port. Then the central Asian oil will be threatened if not controlled by Russians. Referring to the Iranian continuous threats that it would close the Gulf, and then the energy supply to Europe will be threatened. This means that the American fought seven years for nothing. From here a third world war would start if the US and Russia did not agree about the rules of the new game in central Asia quickly.
When Kosovo declared independence, Russia threatened the West that it would announce Abkhazia and South Ossetia two independent states. President Saakashvili should not have given the Russian this opportunity. The rule is that small countries should not threat the interests of superpowers. If he tried to find common interests with Russia and postponed NATO application until the US and Russia strike their global deal which is a must geopolitically if they were to confront China, he would have saved his country much trouble and even he might have find ways to negotiate with separatists. He made himself a card in the American hands before the deal and Russia responded by making his country a card in its hands.
The American wanted also to test president Medevedv. It is clear that his policy is much the same like his Godfather Putin. Some observers say that Putin is still the de facto leader of the country. This means that the Americans have to live with Putin´s policy for a long time to come. After the eight years of Medevedv´s presidency, he and his Godfather may simply exchange posts again.
The Russians learnt much from their lesson in Afghanistan and most probably, they will not repeat the mistake and go into a long war. They will arm the separatists and the Georgian peace would be a history if Tibilisi insisted on fighting. Another thing Putin declared that most of the two thousands citizens that were killed were Russians. He said frankly that this cleansing crime would not go without punishment. He simply says to the West as you tried our Serbian allies I will do the same to your Georgian allies. The Georgians accuse Russians of doing that and they said that the victims were Georgians. Of course, the American could not comment about cleansing war in Georgia. They cannot ask the international criminal court to do anything because Putin and Medevedv are not Bashir if they chose to believe the Georgian. However if they stroke a deal with Russia, they will give their back to the Georgian president and he would become a war criminal.
The Russian-Georgian war may be the most serious war in the Pax-Americana future. It may mark the return of Russia as a global force. It will draw another red line for the US. Now the world has two powers if not three with China who could start a war without previous coordination with regional or international powers. This reduces the American influence in some regions.
The West depends upon Afghan´s neighboring countries, Russia one of them, in the logistics in its war there. Most of these countries are in the Russian vital space. Most probably, the West will give Georgia the lip service and leaves it for Russia to decide its future to ensure the safety of its operations.
One last thing a Russian top official said that Israelis trained the Georgian army. The Israeli Foreign Ministry asked the Military Institutions to stop arms sales to Georgia after few hours. Previously Israel did not care about any country but the US. Does Tzipi Levini feel the change? Both US and Russia have changed during Bush and Putin era. What is happening in Georgia is a hot chapter of their dialogue about their future alliance.
The exchange of words between the American and Russian presidents did not reflect their real position on the ground. President Bush said that he stood for Georgia´s integrity, but his Foreign Secretary Rice met with Georgian President Saakashvili to force him to sign a ceasefire that its fifth article stated the independence and sovereignty but not integrity of his country. The Washington Post said frankly that Russia is more important for the US than Georgia is.
To assess gains and losses of the different parts of the crisis, one should not compare Russia to Georgia. Comparing Georgia to South Ossetia and Abkhazia regionally and comparing Russia to the US globally gives a better in depth analysis.
On the regional level, Georgia was the first loser. It started a war to control its breakaway South Ossetia that ended with risking losing both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and parts of its territories became under Russian occupation. Some Georgian cities have been destroyed. It is difficult for investors to risk putting their money in Georgian projects again. The Georgian army was easily defeated and the road to Tibilisi was open for the Russian army. It became very doubtful that Georgia membership in NATO or EU might be achieved any time soon or even after many years. Most probably, the temporary ceasefire accord will be replaced by a second one after long negotiations that will put Georgia in the Russian influence sphere and will restrict armament of the Georgian army. Whether a temporary second cold war became the world order or US-EU-Russia partnership could be reached, Georgia will not have any role except for its port Porti on the Black Sea that might by used by the alliances. Saakashvili is the biggest loser and his political future is in its last days or months. If he is lucky, he will escape serving long terms in Russian prisons. The US did not give its ally except one million dollars worth of humanitarian aid beside words of support.
On the global level, Russia achieved some of its targets. It put an end for the American humiliation that has been continuous since 1989. It proved itself as a guarantor of the Caucasus as Medevedv said. It showed the American its military might and the will to use this might in a limited low cost military operation. It put a red line for NATO not to further approach Russia. If Abkhazia got its independence or became a Russian Republic then Russia will secure its navy accessibility to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The ex-Soviet Union Asian independent states will think twice before signing any military or security accord with the US and the West and most probably, Russia will be the third party in these partnerships. Russia became the controller of European energy supply after it achieved control or threat of oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia ensuring a rift between the US and Europe in their Russian policies. It told the world, that it did not fear another Cold War. Its Foreign Minister said bluntly to the Americans that the US has to choose between partnership with Russia or its support for Georgia. Shortly after Rice and Saakashvili press conference, the BBC asked an American political science professor to comment. He said that the US needs Russia more than Russia needs the US. The American Defence Minister Gates attacked Russia verbally but when he was asked about trust between Bush and Putin, he said that national security is built on risks and interests not on trust. Bush visited the CIA headquarters to brief him about the situation and he was told that the American policy about Russia is being revised.
Why does the US revise its Russian policy? Regardless of the US-Poland preliminary accord of the antimissile shield that provoked the Russian Deputy of Chief to announce that Poland will be a target for Russian missiles, the Americans discovered that their policy of humiliating Russia went so far that they have lost a dear. Medevedv said more bluntly that Georgia or any state harms Russians the military operations will be repeated. The crisis exposed the Western alliance that there are rifts in the national security views. While Bush was talking about isolating Russia, the German Defence Minister stressed on having open channels with Russia. Few days ago, Sarkozy admitted that Russia has the right to protect Russian speaking communities while he was in Moscow. The German Chancellor Merkel said that Russia slightly overreacted in the press conference while she was in Moscow. It is noticeable that if one has not heard the event he would have find that some Western Media just omit few adjectives and adverbs that mean a lot. The Western Media omitted the word slightly when it commented about Merkel´s statement. When Bush warned Russia that now is not 1968 when the ex-Soviet Union conquered Czechoslovakia, he had to remember that now is not 1945, when Europe needed Marshal project. It is not only the energy that may dictate European independent policies about Russia but also security. The KJB servicemen are now serving in the Russian intelligence. They have contacts with communist terrorist groups as Badermienhoff in Germany, Bask Revolutionists in Spain, the Red Brigades in Italy, the Republican Army in Ireland, the Communists in Greece, the Kurds in Turkey, the Red Army in Japan and many others. With the Euro equals one and half dollar Europe does not want to risk its energy supply, economy, and its security.
Will be there another Cold War? Geopolitically, the American strategists will discover that they need Russia and the American media analysis told that. If there will be another Cold War it will be temporary and most probably the next American Administration will have another pack of policies. The US cannot risk Russia siding with China. This scenario means the end of Pax-Americana for good. The Neo-Cons´ militarization of foreign policy proved to be harmful. If the US and Russia did not agree soon, there might be a high level of violence in Iraq and Afghanistan. During the crisis, the US called for China to cooperate in Darfur. This means that the idea of giving a space for other superpowers is present in the strategic thinking in Washington. As both Russia and Georgia accuse each other of ethnic cleansing but the US chose to believe Georgia, the international court prosecutor Okambo, cannot issue an arrest warranty against Medevedv and Putin. He declared a very strange statement that he accused Bashir as a person not as a president. If Okambo was serious, then Bashir took his decisions about Darfur in the scope of being a president. Anyhow double standard policies was one of the causes that made Russia act as tit for tat, Kosovo for Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Saakashvili for its Serbian war criminals. Regardless of who committed crimes, the Russians tell the Americans that you established a rule stating that victorious dictates laws and now the Russian Bear is the victorious over an army that its weapons are American and its officers are trained by American and Israeli trainers.
Will the Caucasus war have reflections and implications on the Middle East? Iran may have a larger space for its nuclear file and Syria may show some strength in its negotiations with Israel. Yet, one should know that both the US and Russia will look after their interests. They both have the ability and the will to use force but not against each other. Interests dictate national security policies and dictate alliances with superpowers. As Europe guards its steps between the US and Russia, the Arabs should do the same. The US may accelerate the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and may change its policies about Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities to deprive Russia from having an ally who is already hostile to the West and the US in particular. One last word until Russia responds to the US in Latin America and in the Middle East there is no Cold War. The most important is the fact that making a country a card encourages others to play games for their interests. This is the story of the man who put his hand in the Bear´s mouth to satisfy others who used him as a Guinea Pig in the political laboratory.
However, this was not the only message Russia has sent. The more important message was that the presence of American military personnel in a country does not mean that this country would be immune if threatened Russian interests. At first, Bush asked the Russians to pull their troops while the Georgian army was advancing in South Ossetia. Then he called for a ceasefire after the Russian army engaged in a battle that its results could be predicted. The Russians gave him a deaf ear and they entered Tskhinvali by force and air-raided a military base near Tibilisi. At last, the Americans said that Georgia was partly responsible about the crisis.
The pro-Western Georgian government and President Mikheil Saakashvili took the uncalculated decision to attack the pro-Russia South Ossetia and the Russian peacekeeping force there. The Russians proclaimed that Washington instigated him to do. Then they accused Ukraine of doing that. If it was, Washington then the Americans sacrificed Georgia to test the Russian seriousness about defending its interests before deploying the anti-missile missiles in Czech and Poland and before giving the green line for Ukraine and Georgia to apply for NATO membership. If it was Ukraine then it wanted to revenge for its disturbed relationship with Russia about gas supply, application to NATO, navy bases on the Black Sea and the Russian support for the big opposition that lost the last election with slight marginal results. Anyhow, it seems that uncalculated decisions are not exclusive to the Middle East.
Now the Americans and the Ukrainians know. The consequences were clear. Poland asked the European Council to hold an emergency meeting. In other words, Poland asks its partner a serious question, what if Russia decided to return to East Europe. Putin announced that it would be difficult for Georgia to keep sovereignty over South Ossetia. Bush called for the integrity of Georgia. The Naval siege of Georgian coast means a lot. If Russia will stay in Abkhazia or if it will occupy the Georgian coast, it will not need the Ukrainian ports anymore.
The pro-Russia Abkhazia started military operations against Georgia. It was clear that Russia well armed the two enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. When Georgia accused Russia of using the air force against its bases, the Abkhazian separatists declared that their planes did that. To my knowledge, this is the first time a separatist group could have an air force.
Azerbaijan announced that it would stop its oil export through the Georgian port. Then the central Asian oil will be threatened if not controlled by Russians. Referring to the Iranian continuous threats that it would close the Gulf, and then the energy supply to Europe will be threatened. This means that the American fought seven years for nothing. From here a third world war would start if the US and Russia did not agree about the rules of the new game in central Asia quickly.
When Kosovo declared independence, Russia threatened the West that it would announce Abkhazia and South Ossetia two independent states. President Saakashvili should not have given the Russian this opportunity. The rule is that small countries should not threat the interests of superpowers. If he tried to find common interests with Russia and postponed NATO application until the US and Russia strike their global deal which is a must geopolitically if they were to confront China, he would have saved his country much trouble and even he might have find ways to negotiate with separatists. He made himself a card in the American hands before the deal and Russia responded by making his country a card in its hands.
The American wanted also to test president Medevedv. It is clear that his policy is much the same like his Godfather Putin. Some observers say that Putin is still the de facto leader of the country. This means that the Americans have to live with Putin´s policy for a long time to come. After the eight years of Medevedv´s presidency, he and his Godfather may simply exchange posts again.
The Russians learnt much from their lesson in Afghanistan and most probably, they will not repeat the mistake and go into a long war. They will arm the separatists and the Georgian peace would be a history if Tibilisi insisted on fighting. Another thing Putin declared that most of the two thousands citizens that were killed were Russians. He said frankly that this cleansing crime would not go without punishment. He simply says to the West as you tried our Serbian allies I will do the same to your Georgian allies. The Georgians accuse Russians of doing that and they said that the victims were Georgians. Of course, the American could not comment about cleansing war in Georgia. They cannot ask the international criminal court to do anything because Putin and Medevedv are not Bashir if they chose to believe the Georgian. However if they stroke a deal with Russia, they will give their back to the Georgian president and he would become a war criminal.
The Russian-Georgian war may be the most serious war in the Pax-Americana future. It may mark the return of Russia as a global force. It will draw another red line for the US. Now the world has two powers if not three with China who could start a war without previous coordination with regional or international powers. This reduces the American influence in some regions.
The West depends upon Afghan´s neighboring countries, Russia one of them, in the logistics in its war there. Most of these countries are in the Russian vital space. Most probably, the West will give Georgia the lip service and leaves it for Russia to decide its future to ensure the safety of its operations.
One last thing a Russian top official said that Israelis trained the Georgian army. The Israeli Foreign Ministry asked the Military Institutions to stop arms sales to Georgia after few hours. Previously Israel did not care about any country but the US. Does Tzipi Levini feel the change? Both US and Russia have changed during Bush and Putin era. What is happening in Georgia is a hot chapter of their dialogue about their future alliance.
The exchange of words between the American and Russian presidents did not reflect their real position on the ground. President Bush said that he stood for Georgia´s integrity, but his Foreign Secretary Rice met with Georgian President Saakashvili to force him to sign a ceasefire that its fifth article stated the independence and sovereignty but not integrity of his country. The Washington Post said frankly that Russia is more important for the US than Georgia is.
To assess gains and losses of the different parts of the crisis, one should not compare Russia to Georgia. Comparing Georgia to South Ossetia and Abkhazia regionally and comparing Russia to the US globally gives a better in depth analysis.
On the regional level, Georgia was the first loser. It started a war to control its breakaway South Ossetia that ended with risking losing both South Ossetia and Abkhazia and parts of its territories became under Russian occupation. Some Georgian cities have been destroyed. It is difficult for investors to risk putting their money in Georgian projects again. The Georgian army was easily defeated and the road to Tibilisi was open for the Russian army. It became very doubtful that Georgia membership in NATO or EU might be achieved any time soon or even after many years. Most probably, the temporary ceasefire accord will be replaced by a second one after long negotiations that will put Georgia in the Russian influence sphere and will restrict armament of the Georgian army. Whether a temporary second cold war became the world order or US-EU-Russia partnership could be reached, Georgia will not have any role except for its port Porti on the Black Sea that might by used by the alliances. Saakashvili is the biggest loser and his political future is in its last days or months. If he is lucky, he will escape serving long terms in Russian prisons. The US did not give its ally except one million dollars worth of humanitarian aid beside words of support.
On the global level, Russia achieved some of its targets. It put an end for the American humiliation that has been continuous since 1989. It proved itself as a guarantor of the Caucasus as Medevedv said. It showed the American its military might and the will to use this might in a limited low cost military operation. It put a red line for NATO not to further approach Russia. If Abkhazia got its independence or became a Russian Republic then Russia will secure its navy accessibility to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. The ex-Soviet Union Asian independent states will think twice before signing any military or security accord with the US and the West and most probably, Russia will be the third party in these partnerships. Russia became the controller of European energy supply after it achieved control or threat of oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia ensuring a rift between the US and Europe in their Russian policies. It told the world, that it did not fear another Cold War. Its Foreign Minister said bluntly to the Americans that the US has to choose between partnership with Russia or its support for Georgia. Shortly after Rice and Saakashvili press conference, the BBC asked an American political science professor to comment. He said that the US needs Russia more than Russia needs the US. The American Defence Minister Gates attacked Russia verbally but when he was asked about trust between Bush and Putin, he said that national security is built on risks and interests not on trust. Bush visited the CIA headquarters to brief him about the situation and he was told that the American policy about Russia is being revised.
Why does the US revise its Russian policy? Regardless of the US-Poland preliminary accord of the antimissile shield that provoked the Russian Deputy of Chief to announce that Poland will be a target for Russian missiles, the Americans discovered that their policy of humiliating Russia went so far that they have lost a dear. Medevedv said more bluntly that Georgia or any state harms Russians the military operations will be repeated. The crisis exposed the Western alliance that there are rifts in the national security views. While Bush was talking about isolating Russia, the German Defence Minister stressed on having open channels with Russia. Few days ago, Sarkozy admitted that Russia has the right to protect Russian speaking communities while he was in Moscow. The German Chancellor Merkel said that Russia slightly overreacted in the press conference while she was in Moscow. It is noticeable that if one has not heard the event he would have find that some Western Media just omit few adjectives and adverbs that mean a lot. The Western Media omitted the word slightly when it commented about Merkel´s statement. When Bush warned Russia that now is not 1968 when the ex-Soviet Union conquered Czechoslovakia, he had to remember that now is not 1945, when Europe needed Marshal project. It is not only the energy that may dictate European independent policies about Russia but also security. The KJB servicemen are now serving in the Russian intelligence. They have contacts with communist terrorist groups as Badermienhoff in Germany, Bask Revolutionists in Spain, the Red Brigades in Italy, the Republican Army in Ireland, the Communists in Greece, the Kurds in Turkey, the Red Army in Japan and many others. With the Euro equals one and half dollar Europe does not want to risk its energy supply, economy, and its security.
Will be there another Cold War? Geopolitically, the American strategists will discover that they need Russia and the American media analysis told that. If there will be another Cold War it will be temporary and most probably the next American Administration will have another pack of policies. The US cannot risk Russia siding with China. This scenario means the end of Pax-Americana for good. The Neo-Cons´ militarization of foreign policy proved to be harmful. If the US and Russia did not agree soon, there might be a high level of violence in Iraq and Afghanistan. During the crisis, the US called for China to cooperate in Darfur. This means that the idea of giving a space for other superpowers is present in the strategic thinking in Washington. As both Russia and Georgia accuse each other of ethnic cleansing but the US chose to believe Georgia, the international court prosecutor Okambo, cannot issue an arrest warranty against Medevedv and Putin. He declared a very strange statement that he accused Bashir as a person not as a president. If Okambo was serious, then Bashir took his decisions about Darfur in the scope of being a president. Anyhow double standard policies was one of the causes that made Russia act as tit for tat, Kosovo for Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Saakashvili for its Serbian war criminals. Regardless of who committed crimes, the Russians tell the Americans that you established a rule stating that victorious dictates laws and now the Russian Bear is the victorious over an army that its weapons are American and its officers are trained by American and Israeli trainers.
Will the Caucasus war have reflections and implications on the Middle East? Iran may have a larger space for its nuclear file and Syria may show some strength in its negotiations with Israel. Yet, one should know that both the US and Russia will look after their interests. They both have the ability and the will to use force but not against each other. Interests dictate national security policies and dictate alliances with superpowers. As Europe guards its steps between the US and Russia, the Arabs should do the same. The US may accelerate the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and may change its policies about Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities to deprive Russia from having an ally who is already hostile to the West and the US in particular. One last word until Russia responds to the US in Latin America and in the Middle East there is no Cold War. The most important is the fact that making a country a card encourages others to play games for their interests. This is the story of the man who put his hand in the Bear´s mouth to satisfy others who used him as a Guinea Pig in the political laboratory.
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