Print ArticleThe rule of thumb in picking vice presidents is that they must do three things. They must balance the ticket, make up a real or perceived deficit that the presidential contender has, and hopefully help him win the presidency, or at the very least don´t help him lose it. This rule of vice presidential thumb applies more than ever to presidential contenders Barack Obama and John McCain.
The balance part is easy to handicap for Obama. His pick, first of all must be a he. The talk about Hillary Clinton is just that talk. She is a Northern, moderate Democrat, as is Obama. She is a she with lots of personal and political baggage. She´d pile the X Factor of gender bias to the already worrisome X Factor of racial bias on top of Obama.
He must be an older, centrist to conservative Democrat from the South or the Midwest. The names bandied about Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Sam Nunn pretty much fit that bill. The others such as Joe Biden and Chris Dodd don´t. Bill Clinton is the one recent exception who defied the rule of thumb on balance in picking a VP. Al Gore, like him, was a young, Southern Baptist. It worked because Clinton needed Gore to bolster his pitch that he was not another stereotypical tax and spend, soft on crime, weak on military and national security Democrat. This was the traditional attack point that every Republican going back to Richard Nixon in 1968 hammered their Democratic opponent on.
Obama needs a VP who will be the walking, talking, and voting candidate to foil McCain's biggest attack point against him and that's his razor thin to non-existent credential as a tough guy on national security. A Pew Research Center poll in June found that nearly half of Americans still say that Obama is not tough enough on national security and McCain is. Most voters still rank the economy as their number one worry, and that supposedly works to Obama's favor. But national security is still a worrisome enough issue for Obama to protect his flank on.
The other McCain hammer point is Obama´s relative inexperience. The irony is that Bush got the same knock. He did the smart thing, and shut down that avenue of attack when he picked Dick Cheney. Cheney was older, had been in and out of several GOP administrations, and was the consummate party insider.
Obama´s vice presidential pick is a high stakes game, but it´s also the same for McCain. The balance for him is a younger, proven ideological conservative, from the North, It´s also age. This is McCain´s X Factor. He will be the oldest president ever on inauguration day. This, and health questions, is a big concern of many voters. That actually works against him with many older voters. In polls and surveys, many have said that they want someone who´s physiccally fit to do the job, and since there´s no evidence of an age voting bloc, McCain has to be even more sensitive to the age issue and health concern.
Even more crucial, his pick must be someone who social conservatives like, has confidence in, and can get behind with passion. Though he's done reasonably well in some primaries getting Christian fundamentalist and ultra conservative votes, there's little passion and enthusiasm among them for him. If they stay home in droves on Election Day, his candidacy is mortally wounded.
McCain has said almost nothing about his VP preference. But Mitt Romney is probably the one choice who comes closest to giving McCain the balance that he needs; plus he´s a cash cow and with Obama ringing the cash registers that´s not an inconsiderable asset to plop on McCain´s political balance ledger.
This election the VP is more than just a standard dressing up of the presidential ticket. He must be able to actually help Obama or McCain win. There have been a few times in past elections when VPs have made a difference. Lyndon Johnson in 1960 is the textbook example of that. He brought legislative savvy, he was a Southern then still in good stead, and he could deliver two or three Deep South states. He did his job. Bush Sr. also helped Reagan in 1980 He brought experience, insider connections, and as a transplanted Southerner, the regional balance that Reagan needed. And he was moderate enough to give Reagan a little edge with moderate Republicans.
If Obama or McCain had been able to widen the poll gap comfortably over each other, the vice presidency would still be important, but not as crucial. That hasn´t happened and isn´t likely to happen. So this election the VP will do something that seldom happens, he will help make or break Obama or McCain.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).
The balance part is easy to handicap for Obama. His pick, first of all must be a he. The talk about Hillary Clinton is just that talk. She is a Northern, moderate Democrat, as is Obama. She is a she with lots of personal and political baggage. She´d pile the X Factor of gender bias to the already worrisome X Factor of racial bias on top of Obama.
He must be an older, centrist to conservative Democrat from the South or the Midwest. The names bandied about Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Sam Nunn pretty much fit that bill. The others such as Joe Biden and Chris Dodd don´t. Bill Clinton is the one recent exception who defied the rule of thumb on balance in picking a VP. Al Gore, like him, was a young, Southern Baptist. It worked because Clinton needed Gore to bolster his pitch that he was not another stereotypical tax and spend, soft on crime, weak on military and national security Democrat. This was the traditional attack point that every Republican going back to Richard Nixon in 1968 hammered their Democratic opponent on.
Obama needs a VP who will be the walking, talking, and voting candidate to foil McCain's biggest attack point against him and that's his razor thin to non-existent credential as a tough guy on national security. A Pew Research Center poll in June found that nearly half of Americans still say that Obama is not tough enough on national security and McCain is. Most voters still rank the economy as their number one worry, and that supposedly works to Obama's favor. But national security is still a worrisome enough issue for Obama to protect his flank on.
The other McCain hammer point is Obama´s relative inexperience. The irony is that Bush got the same knock. He did the smart thing, and shut down that avenue of attack when he picked Dick Cheney. Cheney was older, had been in and out of several GOP administrations, and was the consummate party insider.
Obama´s vice presidential pick is a high stakes game, but it´s also the same for McCain. The balance for him is a younger, proven ideological conservative, from the North, It´s also age. This is McCain´s X Factor. He will be the oldest president ever on inauguration day. This, and health questions, is a big concern of many voters. That actually works against him with many older voters. In polls and surveys, many have said that they want someone who´s physiccally fit to do the job, and since there´s no evidence of an age voting bloc, McCain has to be even more sensitive to the age issue and health concern.
Even more crucial, his pick must be someone who social conservatives like, has confidence in, and can get behind with passion. Though he's done reasonably well in some primaries getting Christian fundamentalist and ultra conservative votes, there's little passion and enthusiasm among them for him. If they stay home in droves on Election Day, his candidacy is mortally wounded.
McCain has said almost nothing about his VP preference. But Mitt Romney is probably the one choice who comes closest to giving McCain the balance that he needs; plus he´s a cash cow and with Obama ringing the cash registers that´s not an inconsiderable asset to plop on McCain´s political balance ledger.
This election the VP is more than just a standard dressing up of the presidential ticket. He must be able to actually help Obama or McCain win. There have been a few times in past elections when VPs have made a difference. Lyndon Johnson in 1960 is the textbook example of that. He brought legislative savvy, he was a Southern then still in good stead, and he could deliver two or three Deep South states. He did his job. Bush Sr. also helped Reagan in 1980 He brought experience, insider connections, and as a transplanted Southerner, the regional balance that Reagan needed. And he was moderate enough to give Reagan a little edge with moderate Republicans.
If Obama or McCain had been able to widen the poll gap comfortably over each other, the vice presidency would still be important, but not as crucial. That hasn´t happened and isn´t likely to happen. So this election the VP will do something that seldom happens, he will help make or break Obama or McCain.
Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst. His forthcoming book is How the GOP Can Keep the White House, How the Democrats Can Take it Back (Middle Passage Press, August 2008).
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